Projected XI example
Expected 11
How it works
Expected 11 offers the most likely starting lineups for a match so you don't have to chase after social media posts, rumours or fake news to start figuring out who is expected to play.
Starting lineups matter because they change everything around a match: minutes, roles, substitutions, set-piece responsibility, and the overall shape of the game. Expected 11 is built to make that pre-kickoff picture easier to read.
From signals to projected lineups
The core job of Expected 11 is to turn pre-match signals into a projected starting XI. Instead of leaving you with scattered clues, it brings them together into a clear view of who is expected to start and how the team is likely to line up on the pitch.
The starting percentage is our way of expressing how likely a player is to be in the XI. It is not a promise that the player will start. It is a pre-kickoff estimate based on the information available, and it should be read as a guide to certainty and risk.
That matters because one lineup decision can change everything around a match: minutes, role, attacking responsibility, set pieces, and even the overall shape of the team. The closer you get to kickoff, the more valuable that read becomes.
Starting % key
- 90%Highly likely to start. Only unforeseen circumstances would usually prevent it.
- Highly likely to start. Only unforeseen circumstances would usually prevent it.
- 80%Likely to start under normal circumstances, but not completely nailed on.
- Likely to start under normal circumstances, but not completely nailed on.
- 70%Fairly good chance to start, but there is still meaningful risk.
- Fairly good chance to start, but there is still meaningful risk.
- 60%Slightly more likely to start than not, but there is still reasonable doubt.
- Slightly more likely to start than not, but there is still reasonable doubt.
- 50%Too close to call with any real certainty.
- Too close to call with any real certainty.
- 40%Still has a chance to start, but the signs lean against it.
- Still has a chance to start, but the signs lean against it.
- 30%Has some chance to start, but remains quite unlikely.
- Has some chance to start, but remains quite unlikely.
- 20%Unlikely to start, but not impossible.
- Unlikely to start, but not impossible.
- 10%Very unlikely to start.
- Very unlikely to start.
- 0%Will not start because the player is effectively unavailable.
- Will not start because the player is effectively unavailable.
Reasons a player might not start can include tactical choices, rotation, a recent return to training, fatigue, travel, illness, a knock, or a late issue before kickoff.
If a player has percentages in two positions, add them together to understand the overall chance that the player starts. For example, 30% at left-back and 60% at right-back means a 90% chance of starting, with right-back the more likely role.
Start from fixtures, not from guesswork
Most people do not arrive already knowing which lineup they want to study. They start by asking a simpler question: which matches are worth checking today, and where might the starting XI matter most?
That is why Expected 11 begins from the slate. You scan the fixtures, spot the match that matters to you, and then move into a more detailed lineup view when you are ready.
Why lineup access unlocks over time
Expected 11 is built around pre-kickoff information. The earlier a useful lineup read is available, the more valuable it is. That is why access unlocks in stages rather than all at once.
If you are not signed in, you still get public access close to kickoff. If you create a free account, you unlock predicted lineups earlier. If you want the earliest possible access, Pro is the tier that opens predicted lineups as soon as they are published.
This keeps the product open for matchday browsing while giving regular users and Pro members a clear reason to come back earlier, when lineup edges are harder to find elsewhere.
Access timeline
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More than 8h before kickoff
Expected 11 Pro
Pro members see predicted lineups as soon as they are published, giving them the earliest possible read on the match.
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2h to 8h before kickoff
Signed-in users
Free accounts unlock predicted lineups earlier than the public window, making sign-up useful even before upgrading.
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Inside the final 2h
Public access
Predicted lineups open up for everyone closer to kickoff, when the information becomes most immediately useful.
What you will still see before a lineup unlocks
When a predicted lineup is still in a gated window, the page does not just go blank. You can still see that lineup coverage exists, how confident the prediction is, and whether there is useful pre-match information waiting behind the unlock.
That gives you enough context to decide whether to sign up for earlier access or upgrade for the earliest possible read, without pretending the lineup is already public.
Once the public window opens, everyone can read the lineup normally. And once real starters are known, confirmed lineups are treated as confirmed information rather than premium mystery.
Locked lineup example
Context matters as much as the XI
A projected lineup is most useful when you can place it in context. A title race, a derby, a busy week, or a match with little room for rotation can all change how you read the likely XI.
That is why Expected 11 does not stop at naming eleven players. It also helps you understand the competition, the importance of the match, and the team situation around the lineup.
Table context
| Team | PL | GD | PTS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 27 | +42 | 61 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 27 | +35 | 60 |
| 3 | Atletico Madrid | 27 | +24 | 55 |
UEFA Champions League
Important framing
Expected 11 is predictive and informational. It is not an official club announcement, and the likely XI can still change when new information appears closer to kickoff.
The goal is not to pretend the lineup is already confirmed. The goal is to give you the clearest possible read of the expected starting lineup before the official team sheet arrives.
Next steps
Browse today's fixtures if you want to start from the match slate. Create a free account if you want earlier lineup access and saved favorites. Upgrade to Pro if you want predicted lineups the moment they are published.